Traffic and Revenue Projections for Private Sector Projects
Dr Willumsen has undertaken Traffic, Patronage and Revenue collection studies for over 50 toll road concessions and no less than 15 Rapid Transit or Rail projects. He is well known to bidders, financial institutions, rating agencies and governments involved in this type of projects. The modelling standards for transport projects requiring private sector finance and equity contributions are different, and in many ways more demanding, than those required for strategic planning and policy development.
The inclusion of risk from the outset of any such study is of paramount importance; the application of tools like @Risk is generally not sufficient to provide a solid risk analysis.
Examples of projects |
 |
Traffic & Revenue Forecasting for FARAC 1 & 2 Concessions in Mexico
He led the preparation of traffic and revenue projections in support of a bid for four toll road concessions in Mexico, the FARAC 1 package. Following the success of this bid, he directed similar work for the FARAC 2 (later on split in two) package as well. The work involved extensive data collection, the preparation of an extensive network model with 14 user classes to represent accurately willingness-to-pay issues. An advanced growth model was also developed with consideration of when the elasticities of demand to GDP would start stabilising in this 30-year concession. Presentations were made to banks, rating agencies, monoline insurers and other stakeholders. |
|
|
Free-flow electronic toll collection urban concession in Santiago
Luis directed six original traffic and revenue projections for the same number of new urban toll road concessions in Santiago. All of them are free-flow electronic toll collection facilities. These introduce a raft of new issues compared to cash tolls including: leakage, enforcement, development of sound databases, willingness to pay when payment and use are separated over time, etc. Advanced traffic models were developed for the whole city and enhanced with new data for each study. All the concessions have now reached financial close (in Chile and the USA) supported by these studies and our presentations. Total finance secured so far exceeds US$2 billion. They have been in successful operation since 2005. Our projections have proved to be very reliable and helpful to equity, financiers and monoline insurers who wrapped some of the transactions. |
|
|
Caracas Metro extension to Los Teques
Directed this feasibility study for a 10Km extension of the Caracas Metro to Los Teques in the Andes Mirandinos. In order to do this, extensive data collection, including Stated Preference surveys, was undertaken in the region to ascertain willingness to pay for the extended service. In order to consider competition from other modes, an extensive multi-modal model was developed on an Emme/2 platform. A relatively novel feature of this model was the simultaneous equilibration between mode choice and assignment. The study considered the economic and financial feasibility of the project and its possible implementation through a Public Private Partnership. The feasibility study was used and the system started operating, as planned, in 2006. For a short video try here. |
|
|
Patronage and Revenue Projections for Metro Concessions in India
Luis directed three major demand modelling studies to provide patronage and revenue projections for three metro lines in Hyderabad, an extension of the Delhi Metro to the Airport, and Line 2 of the Mumbai Metro. In each case, a new multi-modal demand model has been developed, validated and used to estimate patronage and revenue collections in support of respective bids for these concessions. Each model involves multiple user classes in order to take into account different levels of "willlingness to pay" encountered in these cities. The role of motorcycles presented a particular challenge for Mumbai and Hyderabad as they are a popular and low cost mode of transport. The Delhi Metro extension to the Airport is now operational.
|
|
|
Traffic and Revenue Projections for the Western Sydney Orbital
Luis directed this study in support of a bid by for the WSO, a 39 km free-flow electronic toll collection road that completes an orbital system around Sydney. A model of the whole of Sydney was prepared, focused on the Western area, in EMME/2. The model included 12 different user classes and specific arrangements to model a toll cap at A$5. A number of difference scenarios were tested and comprehensive sensitivity analysis was undertaken to satisfy the different institutions involved. The work was presented to financial institutions and their auditors. | |
Specific Services for Private Sector Projects |
|
Dr Willumsen can provide high level advice on modelling supporting local consultants and ensuring the requirements of international finance are met by any traffic and revenue projections. Then, if the right standards are satisfied, presentations can then be made to financial institutions and rating agencies providing additional support for quality forecasts.
Other services include technical audits of patronage and revenue projections and methodologies, model systenm design and implementation, risk analysis and mitigation, support to financial close, etc. |
If you would like to learn more about the recommended approach please use the "Contact Us" page. | |
| |
|
|
Private Sector
